Freitag, 16. Januar 2015

2013 / 2014 Industry OUTLOOK - Power Supply - PV Market - UPS Market - Wirless Power, Charing & Lighting Market

2013 / 2014 Industry OUTLOOK
(Info from January 2014)

General Economic Outlook

According to the United Nations global economy report for 2014 (from December 2013), economic growth should increase for the coming 2 years. The global economy is expected to grow with 3.3% in 2015 and 3% in 2014 compared with the 2.1% from 2013. The world economy experienced a light growth for a second year in 2013. Some improvements in the last quarter have led to the UN’s more positive forecast. The Euro-Area has finally ended a protracted recession. Growth in the United States strengthened somewhat. A few large emerging economies, including China and India, managed to backstop the deceleration they experienced in the past two years and veered upwards moderately. All these factors lead to increasing global growth. According to WESP, inflation will remain tame worldwide, but the employment situation will continue to be challenging.

Power Supply Market Trend
According to IHS Research the Merchant Power Supply Market is not projected to fully recover until 2014. The market started growing again in 2013 after a 3% decline in 2012 which resulted in the market shrinking to $ 20.19 billion. The growth is predicted to vary between 3.8% - 4.4% from 2014-2017 with an estimated result of $24.34 Billion in 2017. After the market drop in 2012 Asia is expected to recover the fastest before America and EMEA. The AC-DC non-commodity market is forecasted to recover in 2014 as demand remains low in the telecom and industry market – actually this market is projected to return to growth in 2013 but will not fully recover to the 2012 market size until 2014. The market for DC-DC converters declined in 2012 by 8.2% as large industrial and telecom projects were postponed or cancelled. The DC-DC market will remain flat until 2013. Growth will be expected in 2014 – total recovery not until 2017.

Growing Markets
Wireless Power & Charging and Lighting
are seen as the 2 fastest growing applications from 2012 to 2017.  Without the two applications the global merchant power supply market would have dropped by ca. 3.4% in 2012 and the CAGR would have been reduced to only 1.6% from 2012 – 2017. The power supply demand in traditional markets like Telecom and Industrial is expected to remain low for the future. Strong growth in other markets like Tablet PC’s & Storage in datacom applications (Big Data) will be recorded. A historically large segment of the AC-DC commodity market forms the cellular handset market (ca.20% in 2012). The demand for power supplies for mobiles is expected to decline at an increasing rate from 2014 onwards. Mobile smart phones will be shipped without a bundled charger. This is done to drive the introduction of a single adapter for all mobile phones - a universal charging solution (UCS) to reduce electronic waste. However, the External Power Adapter and Charger Market is expected to rise by 19% by 2014.

Further, IHS predicts a worldwide growing demand of $100 Million for the next 5 Years for medical power supplies as the demand for medical equipment is growing as well especially from 2015 onwards.

Other Markets

UPS Market Outlook

Major Economies are slowly emerging from the global economic slowdown but the conditions for the UPS hardware business are still challenging according to IHS. The market in Asia is helping to mitigate the weakness in the rest of the world expected to see this strength to continue through 2014. UPS Service vendors have prevented deeper losses in the Americas and EMEA. Revenues from UPS services are estimated to grow by 7.7% from 2013 – 2014 ($2.894 – $3.117 Million). Despite UPS-hardware sales continuing to post year-on-year falls, service vendors have become increasingly focused on increasing their business in the areas of service contracts, warranties, installations, battery replacements and preventative maintenance of UPS hardware.

PV Market
“The global solar industry is on the rebound after 2 years of punishing downturn” says IHS senior research director for solar. The worldwide PV installations are set to rise with double digits in 2014, expecting global PV installations to be in the range of 40GW to 45GW. “Module prices are stabilising and emerging markets are on the rise. However, challenges remain, including changes in government incentives and policy, an ongoing backlash to the rapid rise of renewables and razor-thin margins throughout the solar value chain.” Leading countries in 2013 were China, Japan, USA and Germany. 

Key predictions for 2014
• PV energy storage systems (PVESS) will amount to 753MW, up from 192MW in 2013
• PV module ASPs to decline 10%. ASP decline of 40% in 2020 compared to 2013
• Capital spending to increase 42% and reach US$3.3 billion
• PV installations in Latin America to reach 1.4 GW, up from 300MW in 2013
• PV inverter shipments to increase 13% to 41GW, with revenue of US$1.8 billion
• China not expected to reach targeted 8GW of distributed (DG) PV installations
• 700MW of unsubsidised PV to be developed worldwide

Market Players
For 2013 Delta Electronics is estimated to remain the largest supplier of the merchant power supply market. In 2012 it was 18.1% for Delta, followed by Emerson ranking Nr.2 with 9.2% and Lite-On with 7.1% respectively – meaning that all 3 suppliers count for more than 1/3 of the total merchant power supply market. 

Note: The market numbers above are a collection of data from the United Nations and are also approved for publishing by Market Research Institution IHS / IMS Market Research. 

Carsten Schade 
Marketing Manager | Delta Electronics EMEA

Delta Electronics Europe
T +31 20 655 0905  | F +31 20 655 0999| M +31 61 245 0609| E
Delta Electronics Europe, Zandsteen 15, 2132 MZ Hoofddorp, The Netherlands